Defining generational cohorts for Vietnam - Need reader's comments and inputs

The normal convention in Vietnam defining 8x and 9x is only generations, which does not guarantee a clear distinction for marketing or management. Generation cohort, defined by events that were happening during the "come of age" (16 - 22 years old), is a better way of classification. This post proposes a cohort system for Vietnam, and call for comments from readers.

Back in 2004, I talked to a few friends studying MBA and social studies about building up a generational cohort system for Vietnam, something similar to one of US. Nonetheless, we didn't come up with any clear plan due to many reasons. After that, I myself did some of the work, mainly from spending's and saving's point of view for multiple Vietnamese cohorts that I identified.

A year later, the concept of 8x generation started to be widely accepted in Vietnam. Now, people started talking about the 9x generation. However, when it comes to application, generation is in most cases used interchangeably with cohort, which makes it inaccurate.

First, let's look at the definition of generational cohort and make the distinction between cohort and generation. Cohorts are defined by Charles Schewe, Geoffrey Meredith and Stephanie Noble as "groups of individuals who are born in the same period and travel through life together. They experience similar external events during their late adolescent/early adulthood years. These "defining moments" influence their values, preferences, attitudes, and buying behaviors in ways that remain with them over their lifetime." The events that was happening during the "come of age" defining the cohorts, therefore the cohort can be long or short depending on these events.

The normal convention in Vietnam defining 8x and 9x is based on generations, i.e. the decade of birth, is unreliable. On one hand, there is no special reason why year of birth may cause the difference. On the other hand, the length of 10 years does not guarantee that the difference is significant between generations, especially among years close to the decade transition.

Proposed Vietnamese Cohorts

From all of these, cohort promises a better result in segmenting age groups than generation, even though the former is still a way to build stereotype of people. Based on the major events happening in Vietnam recently, I propose the following cohorts for people born and lived in Vietnam till their early twenties:

1. The Post-War Cohort. This group of people were born between 1958 and 1967. Even though grew up when Vietnam was divided and their lives could be quite different before and after the end of the war (1975), the wars were a big part of their lives. The most prominent events in their lives are the end of the war, the wars with Khmer Rouge and China, and various aspects of the Cold war. Entering the workforce and start to support their families during the years of 1978 to 1986, when the economic conditions of the country was very bad and degrading, and normal life was depressed by the wars. Struggle in their early lives shapes this cohort's saving and spending characteristics. In their 40's now, though many of them has gained status and wealth, they are very careful and tend to save more.
2. The Transition Cohort. This cohort consists of people born between 1968 and 1973. Experiencing their family's difficulty when small, and coming of age during Vietnam's transition period of 1987 - 1995, this cohort saw a lot of changes in their early adulthood. The most prominent events for them are the "Price - Salary - Money" reform, i.e. "the Reform", the collapse of the Soviet Union and the peak of the embargo by US and the ally. For this cohort, uncertainty is an assumption. They tend to save, but willing to spend to prepare for future or to take short-term advantage of the change. Entering the workforce mostly right before the country's opening to foreign investment, this cohort was caught by surprised by the new qualification, for which they didn't have time to prepare. As parents, this cohort created a demand for huge school workload, which is in my opinion one important reason for the recent issues in Vietnamese education system.
3. The Open-Economy Cohort. This cohort consists of people born between 1974 and 1983. Their coming of age in 1996 - 2000 was defined by the initial success of the "market economy", multilateral foreign policy marked by Vietnam's joining the ASEAN (July 1995), the initial impact of increasing foreign investment and aids to the economy (after the lifting of US embargo in 1994), and the strong development of private sector. In terms of technology, this is the period when telephone is available in almost all offices and household in urban areas (3 million lines in 2000). Meanwhile computer literate was becoming a increasing popular work requirement. This cohort therefore is generally optimistic about the future but don't forget about the difficult days of their childhood. Therefore, they tend to invest rather than save, but still partially risk averse. They also feel comfortable using technology in their work and life.
4. The Global Cohort or the Baby Boomer Cohort. This group of people was born between 1984 and 1991, when the one-child policy was partial lifted and economy was greatly improved. As the result, the population surged as seen in the widest part of the pyramid in the diagram below (in 2005, this cohort aged between 14 and 21). This is the reason why I also call this Vietnam's Baby Boomer Cohort. This cohort's "coming of age" in 2000 to 2007, i.e. time of this post, was marked by events that open Vietnam to the world, namely Bilateral trade with US (July 2000), accession to WTO (November 2006), increasing Internet access at offices, homes and Internet cafes. This period also saw popularity of online games, chat and cell phones, and the boom of private companies and the Vietnamese stock market. Throughout its childhood, this cohort saw a constant improvement of the economy and of the lives of people around. The promise of this improvement to continue is the basic assumption for them. Not being bogged down by risks, traditions or ideal, they dare to pursue what they want. As the result, they take high risk to when they see opportunities come. They are also willing to take loan from families and financial institutions to consume and invest. People in this cohort, on the other hand, are very comfortable with technology (but technology has not yet a part of their lives). Feeling they are a part of a larger, global community, they tend to work together better in teams and cross-cultural environment. Notably, while proving who they are is important, it is as important to them to be connected with people like them.

Last Thoughts

The most difficult part of defining cohorts is the boundary years of birth, which can only be determined by a proper survey. The system I proposed above is based on not only analyzes, but also  personal impression and popular opinions. I also used varying "come of age" due to the fact that people tend to start adulthood at slightly different ages at different time in the history.

The second issue is where the Global Cohort ends. I personally think 2007 may not be the best cut-off time without knowing what's happening next. Therefore, the limit of 1991 may not hold, which suggest that the "9x" might not be so different from the late "8x".

Looking forward, I believe the age group that grew up with technology and Internet, using 2000 as the milestone and 6 years old as the critical age, was born after 1994. Being in their junior high or primary school now, this group can be the next cohort comparable to the American generation "Y". They will make a huge different to productivity and online activities in Vietnam.

Finally, cohort alone is not good enough. Like mentioned before, it's just another way of stereotyping and thus only true at aggregate level, individual might not fit with the description perfectly. I also only discussed here implications to a few aspects in the cohort's characteristics. 

Ask the Reader
This is by far not a thorough study, and need a lot of test and refinement to be useful. If you are interested and feel this post is useful, please give me comments on:

• The age group for each cohort
• Name and characteristics of each cohort
• Other use of cohort

Please note that I will not post approve comment with political-sensitive issues.

Also, if you want to give me a hand to make this more accurate in different areas, please drop me a mail at tienhnguyen@gmail.com. Thank you.

Comments

[Jason Vu]

Nice to see you raised this, but I think it is a bit sensitive with cohorts 1&2 since so different between the North&South ;-) Cohort3 should be 1972-1985 then cohort4-1986-1992. Thinking of naming cohort4 :)

[Tien]

Hi Jason,

Thanks for the comment. Is there any specific reason why you think the cohorts should be that way?

Cohort 1 and 2 can be sensitive, I agree, but from the "defining moment" view point, I think it's OK to stay in the high level without drawing in the distinction.

Tien.

[Jason Vu]

I put the cohorts 3&4 that way since they have similar thinking and attitude, not just when they were born

[Duc Ha]

Anh Tien, what about regional factors? For example, I would say, cohort 1 in the North and South are quite different in many aspects, including, you know. Cohort 3, from my own experience, still share some regional effect. Southern people are in general more liberal, don't have much exposure to Russian/Chinese products as people in the North. Buying behaviors are quite different too, even now, issues of some major newspapers in the North and the South look quite different.

[Tien]

Hi Duc,

I agree that there is a difference between the regions even for later cohorts. Cohort alone never gives a complete picture like I mentioned in the post. Instead, it's helpful to separate and see the difference between generations.

Tien.

[Phong]

Hi,

Spot on. Definition of 8X, 9X generations has been used so confusedly and interchangeably with the term cohort that makes it so difficult for marketing people and advertising people (like me) to identify who they are.

Do you have any other article written about Vietnam?

cheers,
Phong